Monday, November 3, 2008

Week 11 ACC Handicapping

Going into Week 11

The Standings

Maryland (6-2, 3-1)
Florida State (6-2, 3-2)
Wake Forest (5-3, 3-2)
Clemson (4-4, 2-3)
Boston College (5-3, 2-3)
NC State (2-6, 0-4)
Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2)
Miami (6-3, 3-2)
Virginia (5-4, 3-2)
Virginia Tech (5-3, 2-2)
North Carolina (6-2, 2-2)
Duke (4-4, 1-3)

The Games

Week 11
Clemson at Florida State
Georgia Tech at North Carolina
NC State at Duke
Maryland at Virginia Tech
Virginia at Wake Forest
Notre Dame at Boston College
Bye Week

Week 12
Boston College at Florida State
Wake Forest at NC State
Virginia Tech at Miami
Duke at Clemson
North Carolina at Maryland
Bye Week

Week 13
Boston College at Wake Forest
Florida State at Maryland
Miami at Georgia Tech
Duke at Virginia Tech
Clemson at Virginia
NC State at North Carolina
Bye Week

Week 14
Maryland at Boston College
North Carolina at Duke
Virginia at Virginia Tech
Miami at NC State
Florida at Florida State
Georgia Tech at Georgia
South Carolina at Clemson
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest
Bye Week

The Teams
Division games in CAPS, Inter-Division games in lower case.


Maryland (3-1)
Wins: CU, WF, NCSU
Losses: uva
Home: FSU, unc
Away: BC, vt
Analysis: Jekyll and Hyde team of the ACC...all four remaining games are possible losses...already has tiebreak over Wake.

Wake Forest (3-2)
Wins: FSU, CU, du
Losses: UMD, mia
Home: BC, uva
Away: NCSU
Analysis: Can't lose another game...must go 3-0 and hope UMD goes 2-2 in remaining ACC games...all three remaining games are winnable...offense has struggled against quality teams.

Florida State (3-2)
Wins: NCSU, mia, vt
Losses: WF, gt
Home: CU, BC
Away: UMD
Analysis: Loss to GT doesn't kill their hopes, but removes their margin for error...if Noles finish 6-2, they should still win the division...two of three remaining division games are at home.

Boston College (2-3)
Wins: NCSU, vt
Losses: CU, gt, unc
Home: UMD
Away: FSU, WF
Analysis: In the words of Brian, they're the best team in the ACC without a defense in the division...still in it because all remaining games are against contenders...can win out and win on tiebreaks.


Georgia Tech (4-2)
Wins: DU, bc, cu, fsu
Losses: VT, UVA
Home: MIA
Away: UNC
Analysis: UNC game is an elimination game...must finish with better record than both UVA and VT...only contender with six conference games played...ran the gauntlet against the Atlantic, but has struggled vs. Coastal...probably wins the division if they finish 6-2.

Miami (3-2)
Wins: UVA, DU, wf
Losses: UNC, fsu
Home: VT
Away: GT, ncsu
Analysis: Showed poise for a young team on the road vs. UVa...finishes season with two road games...after bye week this week, will be one of three contenders with two games "in hand" against GT.

Virginia (3-2)
Wins: GT, UNC, umd
Losses: DU, MIA
Home: cu
Away: VT, wf
Analysis: Has won four consecutive games...toughest remaining games are on the road...already has tiebreaker over two contenders.

Virginia Tech (2-2)
Wins: GT, UNC
Losses: bc, fsu
Home: DU, UVA, umd
Away: mia
Analysis: Already holds tiebreak against two contenders...only contender with three home games left...not playing very well and is down to third-string QB...must win at MIA.

North Carolina (2-2)
Wins: MIA, bc
Losses: VT, UVA
Home: GT, ncsu
Away: DU, umd
Analysis: GT game is now an elimination game...must finish with better record than both UVA and VT...only one game remaining against a Coastal contender.

The Odds


Maryland: 3/1
Florida State: 3/1
Wake Forest: 4/1
Boston College: 10/1


Georgia Tech: 5/1
Miami: 5/1
Virginia: 5/1
Virginia Tech: 5/1
North Carolina: 5/1

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